Sunday, April 13, 2008

This Week In Refinance

In the previous week, we finally saw a consolidation after months of significant up and down movement in mortgage interest rates. Overall there was a decrease in rates on average of a1/8th point or better....not bad! I noticed an odd movement (or I should say, lack of movement) in rates relative to the treasury yield from last thursday through friday. The treasury yields gapped down at .05% on open Friday and ended the day down by .061%, yet there was little or no reduction in rate from Thursday's rate close. This could either mean a good day for rates on Monday, or that the mortgage spread widened once again.

The biggest news of the week actually came on Friday when NYSE bellweather GE reported less than anticipated profits and reduced it's 2008 profit outlook, mainly due to it's financing division. This caused quite a downward movement in the stock market and in the sentiment on Wall Street. We still need the investment community to feel confident before we experience a true bottoming and recovery in the housing markets. The second quarter of this year may still be an up and down cycle until the bad credit news and mortgage writedowns subside.

As for the coming week, we have some key inflationary numbers coming out. The PPI (producer price index) numbers will be reported on Tuesday and the CPI (consumer price index) on Wednesday. These numbers will really influence mortgage rates if they are reported at significantly lower or higher than economists expectations. We'll have to wait and see. I try not to predict what will happen, only move on the best behalf of my clients. If inflation reports are positive, then I will advise my clients on the fence to lock rates on the dips.

Jim is a contributing mortgage consultant with the popular Refinance Tool Box.