Those that follow the Refinance Toolbox blog know that US bond yields play a major role in the mortgage refinance rates offered to the public by lenders. More specifically, it’s the yield on the US 10-Year Treasury, which is the benchmark for home mortgage interest rates. As the yield goes up, rates go up and vice-versa.
Mortgage rates have recently been holding at the lowest levels in history, thanks in large part to a consistent low treasury yield.
Over the past several days, the “Yield Curve” has been getting steeper. The yield curve is the difference between rates on short-term and long-term Treasuries, and is currently at its highest level ever. This tells us that investors are expecting a strong economic turnaround ahead, and are selling out of longer-term US treasuries, such as the 10-year treasury, in favor of higher return investment vehicles.
As the 10-year treasuries get sold, the bond price drops, and the yield goes up. Not a great thing for refinance mortgage rates.
Banks once again are the big winners here. They borrow from the Fed at short-term rates near zero, while higher long-term rates mean even bigger risk-free profits for the industry.
Consumers on the other hand, get slapped again. Most mortgages and many other types of loans are pegged to long-term rates, a steeper yield curve means a higher cost of borrowing for most consumers and businesses.
Refinance mortgage rates have lifted a bit off their lows, but are still in great shape. But, we’ll have to keep an eye on the 10-year treasury yield. It closed yesterday at 3.744%, still in good shape, but a whopping one-half percent higher than it was only 2 weeks ago.
Continued stronger-than expected economic reports and hints of future inflation could send the yield over 4.0% very quickly. Since the current mortgage spread premium is now in historic check, you could expect mortgage rates to rise with the treasuries step for step.
In continued good news for the housing market, home re-sales surged last month to the highest level in nearly three years. Much of the sales increase is due to buyers racing to complete their sales before the original expiration date of a tax credit for first-time buyers, originally scheduled to expire Nov. 30.
The housing market recovery, however, is still facing strong headwinds, as high unemployment figures continue with no clear end in sight. Mortgage defaults are still setting records and some experts warn that hundreds of thousands of foreclosed properties have yet to be put up for sale. Plenty of traditional sellers are also keeping their homes off the market, hoping for a better price.
So what does this mean for those looking to refinance their home? Well, mortgage refinance rates are still in great shape, but as you can see by the current steep yield curve, could be heading northward. It might not be such a bad idea to check on locking your interest rate now, as the risk of rates going up significantly far outweighs a drop in refinance rates at current levels.
Just make sure to receive a thorough pre-qualification from your refinancing lender before you pull the trigger. You want to have reasonable idea of your home’s value along with an analysis of your credit standing and income ratios for mortgage qualification purposes. If you qualify based on a solid pre-qualification, there is no reason not to lock at current refinance rates if it creates the financial benefit you are looking to achieve.
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