Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Treasury Yields Down and Mortgage Spreads Up = Flat Refinance Rates

After the battle at the 4.0 percent mark of the 10 Year Treasury Yield on June 10, we have experienced a rather nice retreat by more than ¼ percent in the past couple weeks, yet you may have noticed that mortgage refinance rates have remained somewhat flat in the interim. That is because of the increase in the mortgage spread premium that investors and lenders are adding to the interest rates to make up for their perceived risk of inflation, housing values, and other pesky economic perils.

The good news is that although, the mortgage spread has gone up, refinance rates are still looking very good at present levels.

The bad news is that lender underwriting is getting even tougher and home appraisals continue to drift downward in many home markets. The hardest hit home value states continue to be Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada.

That is why I continue to harp on home values and how important it is for refinancing homeowners to check among the multitude of free online home value checkers. Even though interest rates are still nice and pretty, it will do you no good if your quoted refinance home loan rate and program is pre-qualified based on a higher than realistic perception of the value of your home. Depending upon the mortgage program you are applying for, your loan rate could go up, monthly mortgage insurance can enter the equation, or your loan could be outright declined if a lower than expected home appraisal comes in.

Of course, most of us know there are no guarantees at what number a home appraisal will come in at, but, you can increase your odds of home value accuracy at the onset by doing a little online research. A good lender will also check value numbers for you before you apply for your refinance loan, but don’t count on it.

Many of you will benefit significantly by refinancing into current low mortgage rates, but the accuracy of your pre-qualified numbers are very important. Accurate information for income, credit and home value at application will go a long way toward getting your new home mortgage closed efficiently, while avoiding potential headaches during the loan process.

Today, the FOMC begins its two-day meeting and mortgage industry is looking for some clarity on its economic outlook. As far as mortgage refinance rates are concerned, look for anything in their upcoming announcements relating to shifts to their November 4 announced purchase plan for mortgages, agency debt, and treasuries. Also look for any insight into how long it will keep current overnight lending rates intact.

The FOMC meeting announcements will result in mortgage refinance rates either going up, going down, or staying flat. Now, if that isn’t a wishy-washy statement, I don’t know what one is! In reality, barring a drastic announcement either restricting or bumping-up their mortgage related purchase plans, I would suspect things to remain even-keel on their announcement.

On the home value front, May existing home sales rose less than expected. Home sales rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 4.77 million, up from a downwardly revised rate of 4.66 million in April. About one in three homes sold last month was a foreclosure or distressed sale, dragging down the median price to $173,000 -- 16.8 percent below a year ago. Falling prices coupled with new rules for property appraisers have caused many transactions to fall apart or be delayed.

Yes, that pesky home value issue still remains a problem for many that could benefit with current low mortgage rates.

Rate/Term FHA loans continue to be offered at up to 97 percent LTV with conventional type interest rates, and can be a big help to those refinancing in hard-hit home value areas. For those that have a solid qualifying LTV refinance scenario under 80 percent with good to excellent credit, the mortgage rate world is still your oyster.

If you are considering a refinance now and need some help, have questions, or need some competitive rate quotes, please check out the popular Refinance Tool Box. Just give a call at 888-850-9888 or fill out a Rate Quote Request online for professional assistance without the aggressive high-pressure sales tactics.

May the Mortgage Refinance Rates be with You!

Refinance Tool Box

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